A bar mitzvah for Israel's "diplomatic tsunami"
A 2011 fear becomes finally realized as international isolation builds
Thirteen years ago in March, Ehud Barak, then Israel’s defense minister, gave a speech to the Institute of National Security Studies. He was serving in the country’s 32nd government, led by then and current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu’s indecisiveness towards peace with the Palestinians "was pushing Israel into a corner from which the old South Africa's deterioration began," said Barak. “We face a diplomatic tsunami that the majority of the public is unaware of."1
At that time in 2011, 110 countries announced their recognition of Palestine. Barak suggested that progress on peace talks would help Israel. "We haven't tried to put the core issues on the table. Israel must say it is willing to discuss security borders, refugees and Jerusalem, and then it could have a chance."2
Six years later, Hagai El-Ad, then executive director at B’Tselem, the Israeli human rights group, argued in 972 Magazine that the “diplomatic tsunami” never came. Thus, Netanyahu’s strategy of perpetuating Israeli occupation and rule over the Palestinian people without paying the price for it continued unabated.3 However, El-Ad presciently wrote that the tsunami would eventually hit Israel.
When circumstances demand that the world’s attention return to the occupation— and those circumstances will arrive—the reality we all face will be so much more challenging; heaven help us, it will be far bloodier than it is today.4
Indeed, that “diplomatic tsunami” has arrived. Consider Israel’s month of May as the war in and on Gaza continues.
May 8: U.S. President Joe Biden publicly warned Israel for the first time that it will not receive weapons if it invades Rafah in southern Gaza.
May 10: The United Nations General Assembly backed a bid from Palestine to become a full U.N. member. It recommended that the Security Council reconsider the matter favourably after a U.S. vote in April. That resolution passed by a measure of 143 to nine (U.S. and Israel voted no) and 25 abstentions.
May 20: The International Criminal Court requested arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant alongside three Hamas leaders.
May 22: Ireland, Norway, and Spain announce that they recognize Palestine. As of now, 144 of 193 U.N. members recognize Palestine. Israel, recalling its ambassadors from the three countries, said that this recognition was a reward for terrorism.
May 24: Judges at the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to immediately halt its military assault on Rafah in a landmark emergency ruling. That relates to South Africa’s case accusing Israel of genocide. On Jan. 26, the ICJ ordered Israel to prevent acts of genocide against Palestinians and do more to help civilians in Gaza. The court has no enforcement powers.5
What that list doesn’t include are the widespread protests on university campuses in the U.S, Canada, and Europe, or the March 23rd edition of the Economist. No wonder Peter Beaumont of The Guardian suggests that Israel’s isolation will only increase.
However, there is a threefold pathway for Israel to reverse this trend. The first is a ceasefire deal in Gaza that will free the Israeli hostages (and Palestinian prisoners). New talks on that front should resume. The second is to come up with a realistic, credible day-after plan for Gaza that doesn’t involve Israeli occupation and Jewish settlers. The third, and most challenging, is a time-driven plan for independence and self-determination for Palestinians. As many have concluded, the fates of Israelis and Palestinians are intertwined.
Unfortunately, under Netanyahu’s leadership, war and supremacy triumph. His statement of May 22nd asserts:
80% of the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria support the terrible massacre of October 7. This evil cannot be given a state. This would be a terrorist state. It will try to repeat the massacre of October 7 again and again; we will not consent to this.6
Therefore, we can expect Israel’s status as an international pariah to deepen, confirming Barak’s point.
The INSS posted a story from The Washington Times with Ehud Barak’s comments here: https://www.inss.org.il/he/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/systemfiles/SystemFiles/Barak%20warns%20%E2%80%98tsunami%E2%80%99%20of%20sanctions%20awaits%20Israel.pdf
Ibid.
Hagai El-Ad’s opinion is here: https://www.972mag.com/the-diplomatic-tsunami-that-never-came/
Ibid.
Reuters wrote a story with all of the key dates since the start of 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/turbulent-year-israel-global-stage-2024-05-24/
https://www.gov.il/en/pages/spoke-statement220524